The Great AAM Shakeout: Lilium, Volocopter, Textron – Who Survived and Why

Great AAM Shakeout Industry Analysis

The advanced air mobility industry entered 2025 with more than a dozen companies racing to build electric aircraft. It will exit the year with three clear leaders and a trail of insolvencies, shutdowns, and strategic retreats. For rural communities watching this sector, the shakeout is not bad news. It is the beginning of clarity.

The Casualties

Lilium. The German eVTOL developer filed for insolvency in October 2024 after failing to secure government loan guarantees from Bavaria. A consortium of investors attempted a rescue, but by early 2025, the deal was falling apart. The promised funding – including a critical 150 million euro commitment from a Slovakian investor – never materialized. Lilium represents the most visible failure in the sector: a company that raised billions, built impressive prototypes, but could not close the gap between demonstration and certification.

Volocopter. Another German company, Volocopter filed for insolvency in late December 2024. The company had been developing the VoloCity, a two-seat (one pilot, one passenger) eVTOL designed for urban air taxi service with a range of roughly 20 nautical miles. A restructuring plan was due by end of February 2025. In March, Diamond Aircraft acquired the company, offering a potential second life – but under fundamentally different ownership and likely a different strategic direction.

Textron eAviation. The American industrial conglomerate paused its Nexus eVTOL program in August 2025, then announced in October that the entire eAviation division would be dissolved by early 2026. Pipistrel, the Slovenian light electric aircraft maker Textron acquired in 2022, will be absorbed into Textron Aviation. The Nexus eVTOL’s future remains uncertain.

Others pulling back. Eviation, the Israeli developer of the all-electric Alice commuter aircraft, has scaled back operations. Airbus and Rolls-Royce Electrical have stepped away from their AAM commitments. The field is narrowing fast.

The Survivors

Three U.S.-based companies have separated themselves from the pack:

Joby Aviation – First to finalize its G-1 certification blueprint with the FAA. Began power-on testing of its first conforming S4 aircraft in November 2025. Has delivered two aircraft to the U.S. Department of Defense. Completed a 561-mile test flight using a hybrid hydrogen-electric variant. Plans to deploy an aircraft in Dubai in early 2026. The furthest along in the certification process.

Archer Aviation – Completed the first piloted eVTOL airport-to-airport flight and a record 55-mile mission. Targeting first passenger-carrying flights in 2026 through the eIPP program and a UAE commercial launch. Working toward type certification of its Midnight aircraft.

Beta Technologies – Developing the CX300 eCTOL aircraft. Working toward type certification. Named in multiple federal programs and eIPP proposals. Building a national network of charging stations. The quietest of the three leaders, but arguably the most broadly positioned.

Why This Matters for Rural Communities

The shakeout carries direct, practical implications for anyone planning around AAM:

The investment risk is real. Lilium raised roughly $1.5 billion before collapsing. Communities and regional planners that aligned infrastructure investments with specific companies now face stranded planning. The lesson: design for the technology category, not a single company.

U.S. companies lead. All three surviving leaders are American. FAA certification, U.S. defense contracts, and the eIPP program create a domestic advantage that European competitors could not overcome. For U.S. rural communities, this simplifies the partnership landscape.

Certification progress is the only metric that matters. Prototype flights, pre-orders, and press releases do not predict survival. FAA conforming aircraft testing does. Joby, Archer, and Beta all have conforming or near-conforming aircraft. The companies that failed did not.

Platform-agnostic infrastructure is essential. Any rural airport, vertiport, or charging facility being planned today should accommodate multiple aircraft types and multiple manufacturers. Exclusive partnerships with companies outside the top tier carry unacceptable risk.

The Bigger Picture

Consolidation follows the same pattern as every emerging aviation technology cycle. The early 2020s saw dozens of eVTOL startups funded on vision and venture capital. The mid-2020s are sorting them by execution. By the time the first type certificates are issued – likely in 2026 or 2027 – the industry will be dominated by a handful of companies with proven aircraft, manufacturing capability, and regulatory clearance.

For rural communities, this is actually good news. A smaller, stronger field of companies means more focused investment, faster deployment, and more reliable partnerships. The shakeout is painful for the companies involved. For the communities waiting for service, it is progress.

The Bottom Line

The AAM industry in 2025 lost Lilium, nearly lost Volocopter, and watched Textron retreat. It kept Joby, Archer, and Beta – the three companies closest to actual certification and commercial service. Rural communities planning for air mobility should take note: the survivors are the ones worth building with.

This analysis is based on publicly available company announcements, regulatory filings, and industry reporting through December 2025.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *